XRP’s (XRP) weekly price chart is starting to resemble a technical pattern that previously marked a major cycle low and preceded a sharp upside reversal.
Key takeaways:
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XRP’s weekly chart fractal resembles the 2017 cycle low before a 1,577% surge.
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An XRP price breakout requires a sustained move above the $2 resistance zone.
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Declining exchange balances indicate XRP accumulation.
XRP fractal hints at a massive price rally ahead
A long-term fractal comparison between the 2017-2018 and 2024-2026 cycles suggests that XRP’s sharp sell-off from $3.66 multi-year highs mirrors a pattern that formed a price bottom, before a sharp reversal.
Related: XRP holders face $50B in unrealized losses as it trades below $1.40
On the weekly chart, XRP’s drop to $1.10 resembles a retest of the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle from 2017 when the price dropped to $0.12, marking the local bottom.
Commenting, crypto analyst Javon said, “There is potential we see this overall run unfold in an identical manner,” adding:
“Doing so means that right now is only a temporary pullback before a move well above the $20 mark.”
In 2017, XRP consolidated inside the triangle as leverage reset, eventually breaking above the triangle’s upper trend line and rallying 1,577%.
Applying this framework, XRP bulls will be required to push the price above the $1.78-$2.30 resistance to confirm a sustained upward breakout.
Note that this is where the upper trendline of the triangle at $2, the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), and the 50-day SMA converge.
XRP’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) data shows large supply clusters that remain above the spot price. The $2 level accounts for 3.6% of the XRP supply, and $1.80 comprises 3.15%, forming heavy overhead resistance.
As Cointelegraph reported, buyers will have to break and sustain the XRP price above the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern at $2 on the daily chart to signal a long-term trend change.
XRP supply on exchanges continues downtrend
XRP’s multi-exchanges daily depositing/withdrawing transactions delta, a metric that tracks the net number of XRP transfer transactions across 15 major crypto exchanges, has dropped to record lows, according to data from CryptoQuant.
“When the metric declines, it suggests that more investors are withdrawing XRP into external wallets,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said in a QuickTake analysis, adding:
“This behavior often reflects accumulation and long-term confidence.”
This was echoed by fellow analyst Darkfost, who said the “number of XRP withdrawal transactions on Binance has shown several sudden spikes in recent days.”
This includes more than 14,000 withdrawal transactions from Binance on March 6, as shown in the chart below.
This indicates investors are “accumulating and then choosing to transfer their tokens to private wallets rather than keeping them on the exchange,” Darkfost added.
As a result, XRP balance on exchanges has dropped to 12.9 billion on Wednesday, levels last seen in May 2021.
Meanwhile, outflows from US-based spot XRP ETFs eased after Goldman Sachs emerged as the largest ETF holder, signalling institutional confidence in XRP’s long-term potential.
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