BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin may climb to fresh records if US monetary conditions loosen next year. He pointed to several possible triggers for a large increase in dollar liquidity in 2026, while also linking recent market moves to where capital flowed in 2025.
Hayes Links Bitcoin To Dollar Liquidity
According to Hayes, the key for Bitcoin is the amount of money sloshing through the system. He mentioned the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanding through what he called more aggressive money creation, mortgage rates falling as lenders loosen, and commercial banks stepping up loans to industries backed by government strategy.
Bitcoin fell 15% in 2025 while gold jumped 44%. Technology stocks led the S&P 500 with a total return of 25%, against the S&P’s overall 18% return. Those figures, Hayes argued, show that last year was a story about where liquidity landed, not about crypto losing its basic case.
Government Support Sends Tech Higher
Hayes also highlighted how governments have shifted capital into certain tech projects. He suggested that both China and the US used executive actions and public funds to push money into artificial intelligence work, saying this has helped tech firms attract big flows regardless of immediate return on equity.
He named US President Donald Trump when pointing to policy moves that favor AI investment. That dynamic, he said, helped explain why the Nasdaq performed strongly even as Bitcoin slumped.
Bitcoin (red), Gold (gold), Nasdaq 100 (green), and Dollar Liquidity (magenta). Source: Arthur Hayes.
Policy And Military Spending Matter
He added a more pointed claim about military spending. Hayes said the US will keep using its military might and that such efforts require large-scale production financed through the banking system.
That, in his view, can add to broader liquidity if the banking sector starts funding big government-backed projects. Reports have disclosed that Hayes believes these forces could force dollar liquidity higher in 2026, creating fertile ground for risk assets — including Bitcoin.
Inflation Data Pushed Crypto Higher This Week
Markets reacted when the latest US inflation figures came in cooler than expected. Bitcoin inched close to $97,000 and rose more than 5% in 24 hours. Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano each posted gains near 8% in the same span.
Bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, which left cash looking for a new home. That pattern is familiar: softer inflation tends to lower borrowing costs and makes investors more willing to take risk.
A Bull Case With Conditions
Based on Hayes’ logic, Bitcoin’s upside depends on ongoing fiat debasement. He frames Bitcoin as monetary technology whose value rises when fiat is weakened. That view is coherent but conditional. If central banks choose to stay tight, or if inflation flares and forces a policy shift, Hayes’ scenario may not unfold. For the time being, his forecast is a liquidity story — one that will be tested by policy choices in 2026.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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